science of board games

In my third and final (for now post) on debt and money in Wealth of Nations, I'll discuss an almost unexplored part of our play: the trading of promissory notes. This seems to be frowned upon by most players, who don't want to take on more debt in exchange for a few goods. Let's look at the numbers.

First off, trading a promissory note is essentially paying the giver $25 (and 3 victory points): this is what you are saving them down the road. If you accept one, well, first off, you aren't receiving however many dollars for it, so that costs you −$20 (or a bit less), for up to −2 victory points. Furthermore, it's worth either −2.5 or −3 victory points later. So, potentially, we're up to a −$45 or −5 victory point loss here.

However, you are getting something in return. Presumably, some amazing good that you'll need. If the player you are trading with is someone you suspect will be one of the winners, you probably want to reconsider doing this: you are giving them 3 victory points, and giving yourself −5, all for whatever measly good(s) they are giving you in return. If it's between you and him/her in the end, that's a −8 differential that you just handed them. I'm fairly certain that there's no way that you are going to earn 8 victory points off whatever you just bought.

I think the moral is to always try to trade promissory notes to other players, but never accept them from a player who has a better position than you, or is even close. And don't do it too much with those worse off players, because they might rapidly become much better off.

This isn't completely limited to promissory notes: it would apply equally to any other financial trade (depending on the amount of the transaction) with another player. Really, one of your best bets is to not trade anything with the person who's winning, even at a small cost to yourself.